Global Tourist Numbers to Bounce Back in 2010

Jakarta Globe

Madrid. International tourist numbers should recover strongly in 2010 after the global crisis and the swine flu pandemic produced “one of the most difficult years” for the sector, the UN World Tourism Organization said.

World tourism fell by an estimated 4 percent in 2009 but should rebound by 3 percent to 4 percent in 2010, the organization said in its annual World Tourism Barometer on Monday.

Growth returned in the last quarter of 2009 contributing to better than expected results for the full year.

“2009 was one of the most difficult years that tourism has seen in recent times,” UNWTO secretary general Taleb Rifai said.

He cited the global economic crisis “aggravated by the uncertainty around the H1N1 pandemic. Yet, we are optimistic that the recovery is underway. The trend is bottoming out.”

The barometer said the 2010 growth outlook was “confirmed by the remarkable rise of the UNWTO Panel of Experts Confidence index.”

“The results of recent months suggest that recovery is underway, and even somewhat earlier and at a stronger pace than initially expected,” Rifai said. But he added 2010 would still be a demanding year.

“Many countries were quick in reacting to the crisis and actively implemented measures to mitigate its impact and stimulate recovery. Although we expect growth to return in 2010, a premature withdrawal of these stimulus measures and the temptation to impose extra taxes may jeopardize the pace of rebound in tourism,” he said.

Rifai noted “significant growth” in domestic tourism, particularly in some large countries such as China, Brazil and Spain, as a result of the crisis.

On a regional basis, he said, “Europe and North America are lagging, Asia and the Middle East are pushing ahead.”

Europe ended 2009 down 6 percent with central, eastern and northern Europe particularly badly hit, the report said.

But Asia and the Pacific, where tourism was down 2 percent, “showed an extraordinary rebound.” While arrivals in that region declined by 7 percent between January and June, the second half of 2009 saw 3 percent growth “reflecting regional economic results and prospects.”

Arrivals were down by 5 percent in the Americas and 6 percent in the Middle East, while arrivals were up by 5 percent in Africa.

Agence France-Presse