The China issue in Indonesia's presidential election

Wang China Times, Wang Chin 2014-07-10

Indonesian presidential candidate Joko Widodo at an election rally
in Central Java, June 19. (File photo/Xinhua)

As past presidential candidates in Indonesia have raised the specter of foreign threats to win votes, how Indonesia will respond to maritime disputes in the South China Sea is likely to feature prominently in the debate between the two Indonesian presidential hopefuls.

Unlike several of its neighbors, Indonesia does not have a major territorial dispute with China in the South China Sea, except for disagreement over the Indonesia-controlled Natuna Islands and their nearby waters. The disagreement arises from the nine-dash demarcation line used by Beijing for its claims in the South China Sea.

Prabowo Subianto, the candidate for the ruling Great Indonesia Movement Party, does not want to make enemies of other countries but at the same time has sought to gain political mileage from the impression that his country also faces threats from competing claims in the South China Sea. Prabowo even supports taking a hard line in the disputes and proposes hikes in Indonesia's defense spending and more troops stationed on the islands.

Joko Widodo, who has been referred to as Jakarta's Obama and is better known by his nickname Jokowi, the candidate for the Indonesian Democratic Party, holds a different view. Jokowi contends that Indonesia and China do not have competing claims in the region. Even if there are disputes, the two counties should resolve them first through diplomatic means, Jokowi has said.

The Jakarta governor has gone so far as to express the hope that his country may play a key role in the mediation of territorial conflicts with China.

The two candidates' focus on China in their election campaigns has highlighted China's importance in the country's defense and foreign policies, which can be linked to China's growing sway in Southeast Asia.

The growing Chinese influence is also likely to result in more conflicts in the region. Indonesia has qualms about China's growing role in its economy, especially as China imports a great deal of natural resources from the Southeast Asian country.

As both candidates argue that Indonesians should be allowed a greater share in the profits from exports of its natural resources, it can be expected that a wider range of issues could give rise to conflicts between China and other countries. As China's economic might rises, the range of disputes may expand from territorial rows to include disagreements in investment and trade.

Meanwhile, people of Chinese ethnicity in Indonesia are playing more important roles in the country's politics. While their proposal to play the role of a bridge to foster closer economic cooperation between China and Indonesia may have good intentions, increasing protectionism may result in Indonesians turning against Chinese influence and the community subsequently coming under fire.

If the China-friendly candidate gets elected, one can expect better China-Indonesian ties. But the election of a candidate who adopts a hard line on the China-Indonesia issues might give way to trickier challenges in the South China Sea disputes.

More importantly, it may also impact Chinese investment in Indonesia, especially as Japan is stepping up investment in infrastructure in Indonesia to compete with China.

(Wang Chin is a PhD student at the National Taiwan University's Graduate Institute of National Development. Translated by Want China Times.)