Hong Kong is a popular tourist destination (AFP Photo/ANTHONY WALLACE) |
Empty hotel rooms, struggling shops and even disruption at Disneyland: months of protests in Hong Kong have taken a major toll on the city's economy, with no end in sight.
City leader
Carrie Lam has warned that the international financial hub is facing an
economic crisis worse than either the 2003 SARS outbreak that paralysed Hong
Kong or the 2008 financial crisis.
"The
situation this time is more severe," she said. "In other words, the
economic recovery will take a very long time."
The private
sector, in particular the tourism industry, has begun counting the cost of more
than two months of demonstrations that erupted in opposition to a bill allowing
extraditions to China but have morphed into a broader pro-democracy movement.
The figures
are stark: hotel occupancy rates are down "double-digit" percentages,
as were visitor arrivals in July. Group tour bookings from the short-haul
market have plunged up to 50 percent.
"In
recent months, what has happened in Hong Kong has indeed put local people's
livelihoods as well as the economy in a worrying, or even dangerous
situation," warned Edward Yau, Hong Kong's secretary for commerce and
economic development.
The city's tourism industry says it feels under siege.
The
financial hub's tourism industry says it feels under siege (AFP Photo/
Anthony
WALLACE)
|
The city's tourism industry says it feels under siege.
"I
think the situation is getting more and more serious," Jason Wong,
chairman of the Travel Industry Council of Hong Kong, told AFP.
The impact
is so bad that travel agents are considering putting staff on unpaid leave as
they try to weather the storm, he warned.
Even Disneyland
hit
Images of
increasingly violent clashes between masked protesters and police firing tear
gas in the city's streets have made global headlines, with protesters
announcing new demonstrations throughout August as they press their demands.
A Hong Kong
Tourism Board spokesperson told AFP that the number of forward bookings in
August and September has "dropped significantly," suggesting the
economic toll will linger throughout the summer season.
A string of
travel warnings issued by countries including the United States, Australia and
Japan is likely to compound the industry's woes.
The fall in
arrivals has hurt Hong Kong's carrier Cathay Pacific, which was also forced to
cancel flights this week during a general strike that caused chaos in the city.
Tourists
flock to Hong Kong for its energy and urban character (AFP Photo/
Anthony
WALLACE)
|
And even
Disneyland Hong Kong has been hit, with CEO Bob Iger telling reporters:
"We have seen an impact from the protests."
"There's
definitely been disruption. That has impacted our visitation there."
The retail
sector has also been hit by the drop in arriving visitors hunting for bargains,
shops often forced to shutter during the sometimes daily protests.
Experts say
the crisis is compounding the economic downturn Hong Kong was already
experiencing as a result of being caught up in the US-China trade war.
It's a
"double whammy," warned Stephen Innes, Managing Partner of Valour
Markets."
"We
always take a view that oh, this too will pass. But so far that view is not
holding any water... and now it seems like every weekend we're dealing with
further escalations," he told AFP.
Experts say
Hong Kong's tourism crisis is compounding the economic downturn
caused by the
US-China trade war (AFP Photo/Anthony WALLACE)
|
'Nastier
than expected'
The
property market, which fell over 20 percent during the 2008 financial crash,
remains strong.
But Innes
warned that the deepening crisis could result in capital outflows.
"All
the money from the mainland that has propped up Hong Kong property markets
could reverse as quickly as it flowed in," he said.
"This
is getting a little bit nastier than any of us had expected."
The
economic picture for the city was far from pretty even before the protests
began, with growth shrinking from 4.6 percent to 0.6 percent year-on-year in
the first quarter -- the worst quarterly performance in a decade.
Preliminary
data suggests the second quarter fared no better, and while the government
still hopes for 2-3 percent growth this year, predictions from major banks are
more pessimistic.
A Hong Kong
Tourism Board spokesperson said the number of bookings in
August and September
has 'dropped significantly' (AFP Photo/Anthony WALLACE)
|
Those falls
reflect the effects of the US-China trade war on an economy that relies heavily
on logistics processing and is vulnerable to a fall in trade.
The impact
of the protests on growth will not be clear until later in the year, but Martin
Rasmussen, China Economist at Capital Economics, said the crisis was likely to
weigh heavily.
"In
the beginning they were quite peaceful, you could say comparable to the
protests back in 2014," he said, referring to pro-democracy Umbrella
Movement in the city.
"Now
they've become much more extreme, so we think the impact on the economy will
begin to take its toll."
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