Indonesia’s Presidential Race Set to Move Into Overdrive

The Jakarta Globe, Erwida Maulia, May 20, 2014

Presidential hopefuls Joko Widodo and Prabowo Subianto have announced
 their vice presidential running mates, and both have the backing of religious parties.
(Reuters Photo/Dwi Oblo)

Jakarta. Monday’s declaration of two tickets running in July’s presidential election evokes at least two questions: Do hopefuls Joko Widodo and Prabowo Subianto have anything different to offer the Indonesian voters? Secondly, will their respective running mates boost their chances of clinching the country’s top position, or will they be the cause of the candidates’ downfall?

Joko and former Vice President Jusuf Kalla declared their election bid at the historical Gedung Juang in Menteng, Central Jakarta, on Monday morning, ending speculations as to who Joko would pick as his running mate ahead of the July 9 presidential poll. The declaration came just a day before Tuesday’s registration deadline at the General Election Commission (KPU).

Kalla, who is also former chairman of the Golkar Party, had been regarded by many as the strongest candidate for the job, but other names, such as current Golkar chairman Aburizal Bakrie and Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK) chief Abraham Samad, also continued to pop up.

Joko told journalists at the KPU office that he picked Kalla because of the politician’s popularity among the voters, as well as his political experience and track record.

“I’ve been in the bureaucracy [business] for nine years, and I know those [qualities] are needed,” Joko said. “Integrity, a full understanding of politics and the economy; these things are also very crucial.”

Neither Joko nor Kalla spoke about their campaign platform, although Joko said they had submitted their vision for the country to the KPU during registration.

“When the time comes, we’ll talk about it. Later, OK?” he said.

This not deter political analysts from speculating that the pair’s actions during and after the announcement — when they pedaled their own bikes to reach the nearby KPU office — was a clear indication of their populist platform.

“We saw the informal, modest announcement. That gives a populist impression,” Siti Zuhro of the Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI) said on Monday. “And Joko has struck people as a populist figure — not too formal and strict with protocols.”

Muhammad Qodari from political survey institute Indo Barometer agreed, adding that the populist image has traditionally been attached to the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), Joko’s party.

“[Joko-Kalla’s] vision and mission are probably not very different from [PDI-P’s] nationalist-populist platform, which can be seen from its history and rhetoric,” Qodari said.

Prabowo and his Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra) initially built their reputation on a nationalist-populist image, but that was before the recent political situation brought three out of four Islamic parties with legislative seats at the House of Representatives closer to Gerindra.

The three parties — the National Mandate Party (PAN), the United Development Party (PPP) and the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) — all have declared their support for Prabowo and his running mate, PAN chairman Hatta Rajasa.

Prabowo and Hatta also declared their bid in the upcoming presidential on Monday, just a few hours after Joko and Kalla’s announcement.

“Their declaration event looked formal and institutional, with a religious nuance,” Siti said. “Nationalist-religious [platform] seems to be their starting point.”

Although PDI-P has the fourth Islamic party in its bloc, the National Awakening Party (PKB), this hardly gives its coalition an Islamic coloring, with PDI-P’s dominance and PKB’s small share in the alliance that also consists of the National Democratic Party (Nasdem) and the People’s Conscience Party (Hanura), Siti said.

“It’s different from the Gerindra coalition,” she said. “It [Gerindra’s alliance] has a strong religious nuance because of the three Islamic-based parties in it.”

Rights activists recently criticized Prabowo after Gerindra published on its website a manifesto of the party, which includes its religious stance considered intolerant toward minority groups.

The manifesto states: “The state guarantees each citizen’s freedom to adhere to a religion/belief. But the government/the state is obliged to regulate this freedom… The state is demanded to guarantee the purity of teachings of religions acknowledged by the state — from all kinds of blasphemy and heresies.”

These sentiments have been seen by many as Prabowo’s attempt to woo its Islamic coalition partners and voters.

Qodari doubts, however, that using religious sentiments would as it has never been successful in the past — including when Kalla and his running mate Wiranto used it in the 2009 presidential elections.

“JK-Wiranto in 2009 attempted took that direction,” Qodari said. “But [religiosity] is not an effective issue.”

Nevertheless, Siti added, with Islamic parties’ better than expected outcomes in the legislative elections, religious issues may still have some significance.

“But we have very heterogeneous voters here in Indonesia,” Siti said. “And the [political] figures themselves play a very determining factor.”

Aside from analyst speculations on the candidates’ possible platforms, not much has been said as to what the two tickets vying for Indonesia’s top leadership posts for the next five years will offer in their campaigns.

Joko earlier this month talked about a “mental revolution” in an opinion piece published by Kompas daily, underlining the need for a change in mentality, particularly in the education sector.

He also described the actions he would take in the agricultural sector concerning food security issues, during a visit to a farming village in Bogor, West Java. Joko declared his stance against the conversion of agricultural land for residential or industrial use, saying farmers should be given government support to increase productivity. This, in turn, would diminish the country’s reliance on imports by boosting domestic agricultural and fisheries.

But Prabowo may be a real challenge to Joko when it comes to wooing farmers, Siti said. Prabowo’s leadership at the Indonesian Farmers Association (HKTI) is a good indication of his strong grip on Indonesia’s farming communities.

But she hailed Joko’s call for a “mental revolution,” saying a fundamental change in our ways of thinking was indeed what Indonesia needed.

“Concrete changes in mindset, coupled with law enforcement, are crucial to support economic development,” she said. “Joko gives the impression of wanting to create new values, a new culture in the government aimed at improving the people’s welfare.”

On the other hand, Qodari pointed out, Prabowo may have a more systematic platform compared to Joko. The 50-page manifesto of what his government would do if he was elected is a clear indication.

“This is because Prabowo had a head start in the race for presidency, and as the leader of Gerindra, he was able to promote himself from the very start,” Qodari said. “Joko is not a party chairman and became a candidate quite late in the game.”

Joko has led most popularity surveys whoever he was paired with, although a recent survey by Indikator Politik Indonesia pointed out the Jakarta governor garnered most votes with Kalla.

The survey, announced last week, showed Joko-Kalla securing 51 percent of the vote if they face off with Prabowo-Hatta, who may get 32 percent. The remaining 17 percent of respondents were undecided.